The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a popular pick among NFL analysts to be one of the more improved clubs this year, which is why they are 7-point favorites Sunday against the Bears.

They were one of the hottest teams over the second half of the 2016 season, going 6-2 on the strength of a five-game win streak that started in Week 10 with a 36-10 pounding of the Bears. Kyle Long is still trying to recover from a serious ankle injury in that game, and Tampa’s 2016 backup quarterback to Jameis Winston is now Bears starter Mike Glennon.

The Bucs also have added two explosive new pieces in receiver DeSean Jackson and rookie tight end O.J. Howard.

A deeper dive, however, reveals that last season the Bucs weren’t very special anywhere, finishing 24th running the ball, 29th in average gain per carry, 16th in passing, 18th in average gain per pass, 26th in interception percentage and 16th in sacks allowed.

Tampa was even more mediocre on defense, ranking 22nd against the run, 22nd in average gain per run allowed — are we listening Jordan Howard, who was second in the NFL last year at 5.2 per carry, and Mr. “Human Joystick” Tarik Cohen? — 22nd against the pass and 26th in average gain per pass allowed.

How much better are they now? Because their Week 1 game was postponed by Hurricane Irma, they haven’t played yet, so we really don’t know.

Looking at out-of-sync opening efforts from other solid contenders, including New England, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Houston, Seattle and Atlanta, it is possible that could play to the Bears’ advantage.

It would be foolish to ignore the 36-10 thumping the Bears got last year, but it’s also difficult to ignore some matchups that might favor the Bears.

Howard has been limited in practice with a sore shoulder but should be good to go, and he is one of the NFL’s premier running backs. If Cohen’s debut is any indication, stopping him is a full-time job.

Bucs linebackers Kwon Alexander and Lavonte David are special, and Gerald McCoy is one of the best three-techniques in the league, but other than that the Bucs aren’t special on defense and are susceptible to the ground game.

The Bucs’ pass defense gets a slight edge because the Bears are weak at receiver, but Cohen and another former Buc, tight end Zach Miller, can make plays. If Markus Wheaton can make his debut, there could be a few plays to be made.

On the other side, the Bears have an edge with their run defense against a below-average Tampa ground game, but finding answers for Mike Evans and Jackson will be tough.

Part of the answers could come from an improving Bears pass rush and significantly upgraded defensive front against an average Tampa offensive line.

If the Bears’ defense can match their performance against Atlanta and eliminate the two big broken plays, they have a real shot.

Then there is Glennon and Winston.

Clearly the edge goes to Winston, and that’s why Glennon is a Bear.

The Bears need Glennon to manage the game, not make any big mistakes and make a few key plays, while Winston has to be the answer for Tampa, and he is prone to mistakes — 18 interceptions last season — when forces the action.

Finally, there will be the emotion of a home crowd still early in its recovery from Irma and eager to have some fun. If the Bears fall behind and the crowd gets going, they’ll be in trouble.

But if the Bears avoid mistakes, make a few plays early and then ride their ground game and get great pressure from their front seven, you can smell the upset here.

• Hub Arkush, the executive editor of Pro Football Weekly, can be reached at harkush@profootballweekly.com or on Twitter @Hub_Arkush.